Independent Perspective on News and Events

Entries from July 2008

The Economic Weather Forecast

Saturday July 5, 2008 · Leave a Comment

Yes, it is early July but the weather pattern is more like August and that does not bode well for the economy.

Spurts of hot weather – temperatures well into the 90s – will occur for the next
few weeks. There’s nothing unusual about that. However there a widespread outbreak
of 100 degree heat is not in the cards, and that is unusual. There will be spotty 100
degree temperatures but not covering the entire area like we have had the past couple of
summers.

Moisture will be typically sparse. We’re into the summer dry spell and with a little luck -
and higher than normal humidity – we won’t see a significant dry-up.

But what about this August weather pattern? You may have noticed some late season
flowers are alread out. Are they sensing a change in the air? Well, the weather pattern
across the Northern Hemisphere from Asia to western Europe is very August-like.
Chilly air is already building across the North Pacific and the Arctic. Snow will be be
likely at the higher elevations of the Canadian Rockies, and the rain-snow line at
lower elevations is creeping south of the Arctic Circle. These are events that usually
do not occur until August 10 to 20.

What does it mean? It could forebode an early fall and a long winter. Economically,
a long winter would be a disaster if the price of heating fuel continues to be sky-high.

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